If you want to succeed in trading, don’t quit. Others will say quit. Screw them. If you want to be a trader, the best strategy for being a trader is: Don’t Quit.
Even if you lose your money. It’s the tuition you didn’t spend on a Masters, if you choose to learn the lessons. Get some kind of system down. Dont’ make it the best cause it’s not what will make you great. Its part of the equation. My final point is, if you want to be a trader, if you are a trader, then you don’t quit learning.
Trade at a level that you can learn at. Trade at the level where you see the market and can see what its telling you moment to moment. When you do this, you will be in the zone occasionally. You will know it.
I don’t agree that your rules have to be science, but you need to listen to your rules. Not doing so will show you the bad feelings of losing big. Perhaps you need to feel those feelings of losing big. What’s the message? You will lose big until you experience that and learn.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Find the areas where trend breaks are important
It takes a long time of trying to read a chart in a try to find the areas where trend breaks are important, but some basics every trader already know.
Looking at major pivot highs and lows and trendlines on longer term charts are the primary ones.
Stops tend to aggregate under/over pivots as the implication is that these leveks are defended by those who beleive in a continuation of trend.
Strategies of buying a break are common, equally common are seeing the break re-broken in the opposite direction once stops are eaten up so its not the be-all and end-all of strategies anyway.
Looking at major pivot highs and lows and trendlines on longer term charts are the primary ones.
Stops tend to aggregate under/over pivots as the implication is that these leveks are defended by those who beleive in a continuation of trend.
Strategies of buying a break are common, equally common are seeing the break re-broken in the opposite direction once stops are eaten up so its not the be-all and end-all of strategies anyway.
Will or will not ECB raise rate?
Will or will not ECB raise rate?
The answer is not as importnat as it seems…
What a trader would like to know, is NOT if the ECB gang will or will not raise rate…
What a trader would like to know is:
which wines will they drinking during the meeting, following PAR ideas and comments.
will there be any girls at the meeting for massage, because we know that these meeting can be “hard”, pardon the pun, and tense and temper can fly
what is on the menu for the meeting? Simple ham and egg sandwiches? Paella?
Anyone knows why the BoE is not announcing this week ahead of the ECB? Is it for cricket reason?
Anyway, whatever they decide, be prepared!!!
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!
Wouldn’t it be conflicting if the ECB raised rates and at the same would be ready to intervent in the FOREX market?
But then again a trader is a a simple mortal, so what do he know ….!
The answer is not as importnat as it seems…
What a trader would like to know, is NOT if the ECB gang will or will not raise rate…
What a trader would like to know is:
which wines will they drinking during the meeting, following PAR ideas and comments.
will there be any girls at the meeting for massage, because we know that these meeting can be “hard”, pardon the pun, and tense and temper can fly
what is on the menu for the meeting? Simple ham and egg sandwiches? Paella?
Anyone knows why the BoE is not announcing this week ahead of the ECB? Is it for cricket reason?
Anyway, whatever they decide, be prepared!!!
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!
Wouldn’t it be conflicting if the ECB raised rates and at the same would be ready to intervent in the FOREX market?
But then again a trader is a a simple mortal, so what do he know ….!
A safe way to enter a trade
After identifying the trend up or down, a safe way to enter a trade is to wait for the first horizontal continuation pattern of five minutes or more and simply do a stop order above it, if going long, or below it, if going short. Then set your initial stop loss at one and a half to twice the width of the pattern on the side opposite your order.
Livermore in “Reminiscences…” once said something like that: “admitting that I was wrong with my long automatically meant that I had a reason to short”. Maybe not exactly that (don’t remember exactly and lazy to search for an exact quote in a book ) but you got the idea.
P.S. Don’t open your full position initially.
Livermore in “Reminiscences…” once said something like that: “admitting that I was wrong with my long automatically meant that I had a reason to short”. Maybe not exactly that (don’t remember exactly and lazy to search for an exact quote in a book ) but you got the idea.
P.S. Don’t open your full position initially.
Trading with Post Traumatic Disorder Self-Test
If you suspect that you may suffer in your trading style from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), complete the self-test form, by printing the text out. Simply circle either yes or no in answer to the questions. Once completed, show the results to your Doctor.
Post Traumatic Disorder Self-Test
Yes No Have you experienced or witnessed a life-threatening event that caused intense fear, helplessness or horror?
Do you re-experience the event in at least one of the following ways?
Yes No Repeated, distressing memories and/or dreams?
Yes No Acting or feeling as if the event was happening again? (flashbacks or re-living it).
Yes No Intense physical and/or emotional distress when you are exposed to things that remind you of the event?
Yes No Do you avoid reminders of the event and feel numb, compared to the way you felt before?
Yes No Do you avoid thoughts, feelings and conversations about the event?
Yes No Do you avoid activities, places or people who remind you of it?
Yes No Have you blanked on parts of the detail?
Yes No Are you losing interest in significant activities in your life?
Yes No Are you feeling detached from other people?
Yes No Do you feel as if your range of emotions is restricted?
Yes No Do you feel as if your future is diminished in terms of marriage, children or a normal life span?
Are you troubled by two or more of the following:
Yes No Problems sleeping?
Yes No Irritability or outbursts of anger?
Yes No Problems concentrating?
Yes No Feeling ‘on-guard’?
Yes No An exaggerated startle response?
Having more than one illness at the same time can make it difficult to diagnose and treat the different conditions. Illness that sometimes complicate an anxiety disorder include depression and substance abuse. With this in mind, please take a moment to answer the following:
Yes No Have you experienced changes in sleeping or eating habits?
More days than not, do you feel:
Yes No Sad or Depressed?
Yes No Disinterested in life?
Yes No Worthless or guilty?
During the last year, has the use of alcohol or drugs:
Yes No Resulted in your failure to fulfill responsibilities with work, school or family?
Yes No Placed you in a dangerous situation, such as driving a car under the influence?
Yes No Been responsible for you being arrested?
Yes No Continued despite causing problems for you and your loved ones?
Reference: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Washington DC, American Psychiatric Association.
Also i feel that traders should look into the nutritional deficiencies in the industrialized world along with whatever else they are doing for their PTSD. Omega oils, hyaluronic acid, collagen, phosphatydlyserine are largely gone from the diet and they are all brain nutrients. Load up on those, you will notice differences in just days and over a few months you will be a lot better off. The PTSD thing is way magnified if your brain is not healthy IMO.
Post Traumatic Disorder Self-Test
Yes No Have you experienced or witnessed a life-threatening event that caused intense fear, helplessness or horror?
Do you re-experience the event in at least one of the following ways?
Yes No Repeated, distressing memories and/or dreams?
Yes No Acting or feeling as if the event was happening again? (flashbacks or re-living it).
Yes No Intense physical and/or emotional distress when you are exposed to things that remind you of the event?
Yes No Do you avoid reminders of the event and feel numb, compared to the way you felt before?
Yes No Do you avoid thoughts, feelings and conversations about the event?
Yes No Do you avoid activities, places or people who remind you of it?
Yes No Have you blanked on parts of the detail?
Yes No Are you losing interest in significant activities in your life?
Yes No Are you feeling detached from other people?
Yes No Do you feel as if your range of emotions is restricted?
Yes No Do you feel as if your future is diminished in terms of marriage, children or a normal life span?
Are you troubled by two or more of the following:
Yes No Problems sleeping?
Yes No Irritability or outbursts of anger?
Yes No Problems concentrating?
Yes No Feeling ‘on-guard’?
Yes No An exaggerated startle response?
Having more than one illness at the same time can make it difficult to diagnose and treat the different conditions. Illness that sometimes complicate an anxiety disorder include depression and substance abuse. With this in mind, please take a moment to answer the following:
Yes No Have you experienced changes in sleeping or eating habits?
More days than not, do you feel:
Yes No Sad or Depressed?
Yes No Disinterested in life?
Yes No Worthless or guilty?
During the last year, has the use of alcohol or drugs:
Yes No Resulted in your failure to fulfill responsibilities with work, school or family?
Yes No Placed you in a dangerous situation, such as driving a car under the influence?
Yes No Been responsible for you being arrested?
Yes No Continued despite causing problems for you and your loved ones?
Reference: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Washington DC, American Psychiatric Association.
Also i feel that traders should look into the nutritional deficiencies in the industrialized world along with whatever else they are doing for their PTSD. Omega oils, hyaluronic acid, collagen, phosphatydlyserine are largely gone from the diet and they are all brain nutrients. Load up on those, you will notice differences in just days and over a few months you will be a lot better off. The PTSD thing is way magnified if your brain is not healthy IMO.
Do you trade to make money or to maximize profit?
Do you trade to:
make money or
to make maximum profit?
Interesting.
After a lot of discussions about this topic my friends answered, its 2:1 in favor of making money vs. maximizing profit. I think the responses reveal a mental status not oriented to win by default.
So, who will explain all the fierce discussions regarding “superior” trading styles or techniques, as well as the self-deprecating topics about leaving money on the table, getting stopped out, etc?
Of course to answer that question you need to understand the subtle difference between making money and maximizing profit!
My guess, many traders are not being honest with themselves…
make money or
to make maximum profit?
Interesting.
After a lot of discussions about this topic my friends answered, its 2:1 in favor of making money vs. maximizing profit. I think the responses reveal a mental status not oriented to win by default.
So, who will explain all the fierce discussions regarding “superior” trading styles or techniques, as well as the self-deprecating topics about leaving money on the table, getting stopped out, etc?
Of course to answer that question you need to understand the subtle difference between making money and maximizing profit!
My guess, many traders are not being honest with themselves…
The Fair Value of The Euro
As a trader I think that Fair value for the Euro is 1.15/1.20!
We been under value at 0.82 on October, 2001, and now over value at 1.60. the balance line is 1.17.
That’s make the euro over value by 25% against the dollar. While the dollar at fair value against most asia ccys.
Asian currencies have been falling vs EUR with market focused on fall in USD past 6-9 months. While USD has fallen vs both G10, emerging market currencies, EUR has absorbed a very large part of USD decline. Since start of turmoil in July 2007, EUR has risen about 14%. Asian currencies have fallen on average about 10% vs EUR; even “strong” Asian performers like SGD, MYR, TWD, CNY have fallen more than 5% vs EUR on average, though fundamental backdrop for these currencies is stronger than that for EUR. Notes a fair few Asian currencies are managed; while officials are willing to tolerate more gains to combat inflation they “are still not allowing for fast and volatile moves.” Also, EUR often considered safe and very liquid proxy to trade USD decline story. If anything, EUR gains vs Asian FX have led to “more pronounced fundamental imbalances between Asia and Europe”; Asian currencies very undervalued vs EUR: By about 25% according to its valuation framework. Asia also has more favourable external position than Euroland with less reliance on trade to U.S. last few years. Inflation is on rise in Asia, triggering need for tighter monetary policy. Has long TWD vs basket of 50% EUR and 50%.
Goldman Sachs
We been under value at 0.82 on October, 2001, and now over value at 1.60. the balance line is 1.17.
That’s make the euro over value by 25% against the dollar. While the dollar at fair value against most asia ccys.
Asian currencies have been falling vs EUR with market focused on fall in USD past 6-9 months. While USD has fallen vs both G10, emerging market currencies, EUR has absorbed a very large part of USD decline. Since start of turmoil in July 2007, EUR has risen about 14%. Asian currencies have fallen on average about 10% vs EUR; even “strong” Asian performers like SGD, MYR, TWD, CNY have fallen more than 5% vs EUR on average, though fundamental backdrop for these currencies is stronger than that for EUR. Notes a fair few Asian currencies are managed; while officials are willing to tolerate more gains to combat inflation they “are still not allowing for fast and volatile moves.” Also, EUR often considered safe and very liquid proxy to trade USD decline story. If anything, EUR gains vs Asian FX have led to “more pronounced fundamental imbalances between Asia and Europe”; Asian currencies very undervalued vs EUR: By about 25% according to its valuation framework. Asia also has more favourable external position than Euroland with less reliance on trade to U.S. last few years. Inflation is on rise in Asia, triggering need for tighter monetary policy. Has long TWD vs basket of 50% EUR and 50%.
Goldman Sachs
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